Options on the table for India and Pakistan

STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES/ OPTIONS

CONSEQUENCES

ACTIONS TO ACHIEVE OBJECTIVE

AND ISSUES

Friendliness (minds and hearts of people)

Innocent

human lives saved

Economic benefits to people

Actions for Government

Actions for citizens/ citizen leaders

Actions for the rest of the world

Reunite as one nation (Like East and West Germany did)

·      Long term solution

·      Risk of Pakistan becoming a failed state (with its dictorships) minimised – and all loss of life minimised

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NONE

Citizen leaders to raise this possibility and explain its benefits (1st best outcome)

World can discuss and outline the benefits of this option

Throw open borders completely (common economic zone)

·      A long-term solution conditional on complete winding down of cross-border terrorism or support for terrorism

·      Because this is conditional, it is an unstable objective

·      Loss of life minimised (conditional)

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Only when Pakistan guarantees on terrorism met

Citizen leaders to raise this possibility and explain its benefits (2nd best outcome)

World can discuss and outline the benefits of this option

Agree to joint defence/ police

·      Undertake joint action between India and Pakistan to destroy training camps

·      Will (at least temporarily) work

·      Very unlikely to happen due to entrenched positions.

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Armed forces get involved

Citizen leaders to raise this possibility and explain its benefits (3rd best outcome)

World can discuss and outline the benefits of this option

Come to agrement on Kashmir

·      Could significantly reduce terrorism (won’t eliminate it at all, though)

·      Too hard; entrenched positions

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Diplomatic effort to come to agreement

Citizen leaders’ role to get people to see benefits of agreeement (4rd best outcome)

World can assist by facilitating engagement

Citizens to engage and persuade to minimise terrorism

·      Change the way extremists think (very few willing to try to spread liberalism as a cure)

·      Increase cultural and trade contact

·      Make the world aware of the predicament in which we find ourselves and our suffering

·      People haven’t gotten over their post-1947 suspicion of each other: low engagement among people

To encourage citizens to talk to each other; to make India a liberal and free country – and a role model

Last chance for citizens to engage and to agree to stop promoting hatred.

World can assist by facilitating engagement

Defensive strategy 1

·      Freeze relations with Pakistan

·      Launch a campaign for Pakistan to be declared a terrorist state

·      Stop all cultural contacts, trade relations, people-to-people contacts

·      This won’t help reduce terrorism in ANY way.

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Barriers to engagement

put in place; increased oversight of borders

NONE

NONE

Defensive strategy 2

·      Enter Pakistan unilaterally and destroy training camps

·      Not a long term solution as terrorists will sprout again; plus possibility of precipitating a major war

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Armed forces to act decisively. Risk that innocents will be killed.

NONE

NONE

Defensive strategy 3

·      Willing to consider major war

·      This will never be a long term solution – guaranteed to continue to foster hatred

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Ensure successful war with minimum losses. Risk of nuclear war!!!

NONE

US, China will get involved immediately. And indeed the whole world.